Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina tip, odds and prediction, 14 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction and betting preview

Sweden host Bosnia & Herzegovina in the UEFA Nations League, Matchweek 5, on 14 November 2026 at 19:45. The question this match turns on is not really who wins, since the bookmakers already have Sweden at 62%. It is whether Sweden can win by two goals or more, because that is what our main tip needs.

Sweden lead, Bosnia close behind

In this competition alone, Sweden have 3 wins and 1 draw from 4 matches, with goals 7:3, and they sit first on 10 points. Bosnia & Herzegovina are second on 8 points, with 2 wins, 2 draws and no defeat, and goals 6:3. Both sides concede 0.8 per match in this competition, so the difference lies at the other end of the pitch: Sweden score 1.8 per match against 1.5 for Bosnia.

The gap on the table is only two points, and we would not read too much into it. Sweden's home record is the part that convinces us, with 5 goals scored and 2 home wins from 2 matches in this competition.

Last four results, in all competitions

These figures are from all competitions, not only this one, so they do not match the table line by line. Sweden's last four were 3 wins, 1 draw and no defeat, with goals 7:3. They beat Romania 2-1 and Poland 3-1 at home, drew 1-1 away in Bosnia and won 1-0 in Romania. That 1-0 away win matters to us, because it shows Sweden can grind out a result on the road too.

Bosnia's last four were 2 wins, 2 draws and no defeat, with goals 6:3. The standout is the 4-2 win in Romania, which was their only win away from home in that run. They also drew 0-0 in Poland and beat Poland 1-0 at home.

One meeting, and it ended level

The only recent meeting between these sides finished 1-1, on 2/10/26 in Bosnia. Sweden did not manage to pull away in that game, and that is the one piece of direct evidence against a comfortable Swedish win. One match is a thin base, though, and we would not build a view on it alone. We take it as a warning that Bosnia can hold Sweden, not as a sign of how the next game will go.

No absences reported on either side

No absences have been reported for Sweden or for Bosnia & Herzegovina. That keeps the picture simple: the prices and the form are doing the talking, and there is no team news to hang a doubt on.

What the prices say about the margin

The bookmakers' chances are their expectation for this match, not a record of past results. They make Sweden 62% to win, a draw 22% and Bosnia & Herzegovina 17%, with a bookmaker margin of 7.1% on the result. Their expected goals are 2 for Sweden and 1 for Bosnia, about 3 in total, and the most likely exact scores are 2-1 at 10.0%, 2-0 at 10.0% and 1-1 at 9.7%.

The Asian handicap lines show how thin the margin is. Sweden -1 is priced at 51% with odds of 1.91, while Sweden -0.5 is 62% at 1.57. Going to -1.5 takes the chance down to 40% at 2.47. The market is saying a clear Swedish win is likely, but a two-goal margin is close to a coin toss.

Our tip for Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: Sweden -1

Our main tip is Sweden -1 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.91, with a chance of 51%. At -1 Sweden must win by 2 or more, and a win by exactly 1 returns the stake. We are not backing a plain Sweden win at 1.57, because that price leaves little value once the 62% is taken out. The handicap asks for more, and we think Sweden are capable of it at home.

• Sweden won 3 of their last 4 matches, and that is the form we are trusting.
• Sweden lost none of their last 4 matches, which gives them a solid base to build on.
• Sweden sit first in the table with 10 points, two ahead of Bosnia & Herzegovina.
• Sweden have 2 home wins in this competition, and no home defeat.

The settlement is clear. A 2-1 Sweden win returns the stake, 2-0 wins, 1-0 returns the stake, and 3-1 and 3-0 both win. A 1-1 draw loses. The risk sits in the close scores, and we accept that at 51%.

Our other tip: Under 3.5 goals

Our second tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.55, with a chance of 62%. Sweden have had more than 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 4 matches, and Bosnia & Herzegovina in only 1 of theirs. Bosnia also kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4, which is the reason we think the goals may stay limited. The market agrees with us at 62%, and the price is not generous, but it fits the expected total of about 3.

The settlement for this tip is 2-1 wins, 2-0 wins, 1-1 wins, 1-0 wins, 3-0 wins, and 3-1 loses. So the two tips pull in slightly different directions in the 3-1 case, and that is worth knowing before you stake on both.

Other bets from the list

If the main tip does not suit you, these are the bets we would look at, all at the odds given and none against our tips.

• Sweden to win at odds 1.57 (chance 62%), the simplest route if you only want the result.
• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.20 (chance 80%), a short price that fits the expected goal total.
• Sweden -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.57 (chance 62%), where Sweden must win by 1 or more.
• Under 10.5 corners at odds 1.51 (chance 66%), if you prefer a bet away from the result.

Where we land before kick-off

We expect Sweden to win, and we expect them to win by enough for Sweden -1 to pay. Our tip is the handicap at 1.91, with the second tip of Under 3.5 goals at 1.55 as a more cautious companion. The one thing that could spoil the plan is a narrow home win, and the 1-1 in Bosnia reminds us that Bosnia can make it hard.