Scotland vs North Macedonia tip, odds and prediction, 13 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Scotland vs North Macedonia prediction and betting preview

Our tip for Scotland (home) against North Macedonia (away) in the UEFA Nations League, Matchweek 5, on 13 November 2026 at 19:45, is Scotland -1.75 on the Asian handicap at odds 1.86, which the bookmakers rate at a 54% chance. We agree with the market that Scotland should win, but we are not keen on the match result at 1.22, so the handicap is where we put our money.

Scotland's home record is the sore point

Scotland sit third in the competition table with 4 points from 4 matches, one win, one draw and two defeats. They have scored 3 and conceded 5. The problem is at home. In this competition they have not won in front of their own supporters yet, losing both home games and scoring just once in them while conceding 5.

Their wider form is less tidy. In all competitions, the last four matches gave one win, one draw and two defeats. The win came away at North Macedonia, and the draw came at Slovenia. Both defeats were at home, 0-3 to Switzerland and 1-2 to Slovenia. The table covers only this competition, so it does not show the whole picture, but the away results are the form we trust more.

North Macedonia have yet to score in the competition

North Macedonia are fourth in the table with no points from 4 matches. They have no wins and no draws, and they have not scored a single goal while conceding 10. Away from home they have lost both games, 0:5 on goals, and their season figures are 0.0 goals scored per match against 2.5 conceded.

Across all competitions, their last four matches were all defeats: 0-3 at home to Switzerland, 0-2 away at Slovenia, 0-2 at home to Scotland, and 0-3 away at Switzerland. The side has not found a way to score, and a change of venue is unlikely to change that on its own. That scoring problem is the main reason we lean towards the home side.

One meeting on record and no absences

The head-to-head record is short. We have one meeting on file, and Scotland won it 2-0 on 3 October 2026 in North Macedonia. That result suggests Scotland handled this opponent well, but a single game is not a pattern, so we do not build the tip on it alone.

No absences have been reported for either side, so both teams should be close to their full selection. That removes one of the usual doubts before a match like this.

Our tip for Scotland vs North Macedonia: Scotland -1.75

Our main tip is Scotland -1.75 on the Asian handicap at odds 1.86, a 54% chance in the market. The stake is split in two: half on Scotland -2 and half on Scotland -1.5. At -2 Scotland must win by 3 or more, and a win by exactly 2 returns the stake. At -1.5 Scotland must win by 2 or more. The reasons behind it are simple:

• North Macedonia have won none of their last four matches.
• Scotland have collected 4 points in the competition table, and North Macedonia have none.
• Scotland won the only meeting we hold on record.
• The market gives the handicap a 54% chance.

The bet is not a plain win bet, and the margin decides it. On the likeliest scores, a 2-0 Scotland win returns half the stake, a 3-0 or 4-0 win takes the full bet, and a 1-0, 2-1 or 1-1 result loses. That is the risk we accept. A narrow home win is the outcome that hurts, which is why we split the stake rather than go all in on -2.

Under 3.5 as the second tip, and a few other bets

Our second tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.45, a 65% chance in the market. Scotland have had more than 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 4 matches and kept a clean sheet in 2 of those same 4. North Macedonia have also had more than 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 4. The bet wins on 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 2-1 and 1-1, and it loses only on 4-0. We rate it as a sensible second option, though we still prefer the handicap as the main play.

From the rest of the market, Scotland to win at odds 1.22 is the safest price on the board, at a 79% chance, but it is short enough that we would only use it as a small single. Scotland -1 on the Asian handicap at odds 1.27 is the one we like better. At -1 Scotland must win by 2 or more, and a win by exactly 1 returns the stake, so it fits our view of the match with a shorter price than the main tip. Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.23, a 77% chance, is another option that suits a home side expected to score. We would avoid building a large accumulator on these prices, because a single slip in one leg spoils the whole ticket.

Scotland should win this game, and the reasons are the ones that matter most: North Macedonia have not scored in the competition, and they have lost all four of their recent matches. The margin is the only real question, and that is why we have chosen the handicap.