Bet with Mino Casino →Our tip for Portugal vs Denmark (UEFA Nations League, 14 November 2026, 19:45): Portugal -1 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.85. Second tip: Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.54. The bookmakers' odds give Portugal 63%, the draw 21% and Denmark 17%. The most likely score is 2–1.
Wins: Portugal win by 2 or more. Stake back: Portugal win by 1. Loses: a draw, Portugal lose.
Portugal vs Denmark prediction and betting preview
Portugal meet Denmark in the UEFA Nations League on 14 November 2026, kick-off 19:45, and we think the hosts win by two goals or more. Our main tip is Portugal -1 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.85 (chance 53%). It is a narrower call than backing Portugal to win, and we would rather take the extra price than the comfort of the straight result.
Main facts
- Likely result: Portugal 2–1 Denmark, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Portugal 1st (12 points), Denmark 2nd (6 points).
- Form in the competition: Portugal 4W 0D 0L (9:4), Denmark 2W 0D 2L (7:7).
- H2H: 4 matches: Portugal 3W 0D 1L, goals 12–7.
- Absences: Portugal 0, Denmark 0.
Portugal's perfect run at home
Portugal have won all four of their matches in this competition and sit top of the table on 12 points, with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded. The home figures are the cleanest part of the picture: two wins from two, with 3 goals scored and 1 conceded. Across all competitions their last four matches read the same way, four wins and no defeats, with 9 scored and 4 conceded.
Those four results came against Wales, Norway (twice) and Denmark. Portugal beat Wales 1-0 at home on 24/9/26, won 2-1 at home against Norway on 4/10/26, and in between took wins away in Norway and in Denmark. In four matches they conceded no goal once, and in three of them both sides found the net.
Who will win Portugal vs Denmark?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Denmark's away struggles and recent form
Denmark are second in the table with 6 points from four matches, two wins and two defeats. Their away record in this competition is one win and one defeat, with 3 goals scored and 3 conceded. Across all competitions their last four matches were two wins and two defeats, with 7 scored and 7 conceded.
The sequence runs Norway 3-2 Denmark (away, a defeat), Denmark 2-0 Wales (home, a win), Denmark 2-4 Portugal (home, a defeat) and Wales 0-1 Denmark (away, a win). Denmark have kept a clean sheet in two of those four, but they have also let in at least two goals in each of the defeats. We think that open record is the weak point for them, not their attack.
Standings and form
League A – Group D
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | 4-0-0 | 9:4 | 12 |
| 2 |  Denmark | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 3 |  Wales | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 4 |  Norway | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:8 | 3 |
Recent matches
Portugal
Home and away
Portugal vs Denmark: last matches of both teams
Portugal
Denmark
Meetings, absences and the market's view
Portugal have won three of the last four meetings with Denmark and scored 12 goals to Denmark's 7 in those games. The latest was the 2-4 win for Portugal in Denmark on 1/10/26, and before that Portugal beat Denmark 5-2 on 23/3/25. Denmark's only win in that run was the 1-0 victory on 20/3/25, which is a reminder that these games can go against the favourite.
No absences have been reported for either side, so the teams we have seen so far should be the ones who take the field.
The bookmakers rate Portugal win at 63%, the draw at 21% and Denmark win at 16%, with the best odds on Portugal at 1.53. Their expected goals are 2 for Portugal and 1 for Denmark, and the most likely exact scores are 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%) and 1-1 (9.2%). These figures describe what the market expects; they are not a record of past matches.
Head to head
All matchesPortugal vs Denmark: injuries, suspensions, absences
Portugal
- No reported absences
Denmark
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Our tip for Portugal vs Denmark: Portugal -1
We like Portugal -1 because the handicap asks for something the market only partly prices in: a win by two or more. Here is what we rely on:
- Portugal have won all four of their last four matches in all competitions.
- Portugal lead the table on 12 points, while Denmark sit second on 6.
- Portugal have won both of their home matches in this competition.
- Portugal have won three of the last four meetings with Denmark.
The handicap has a catch. At -1 Portugal must win by two or more, and a win by exactly one returns the stake. A 2-1 or 1-0 Portugal win gives the money back, while 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 win the bet. A 1-1 draw loses it. So we are not betting on routine one-goal wins; we are betting that the score opens up.
The goals angle behind the second tip
Our second tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.60 (chance 61%). We back it on the basis that Portugal have had more than 2.5 goals in three of their last four matches and Denmark in two of theirs, and that the expected total is about three goals. The market's 61% is close enough to our own reading to make the price worth taking.
The settlement differs from the main tip. A 2-1 or 3-1 finish wins the Over, and so does 3-0. A 2-0 or 1-0 Portugal win loses it, and so does a 1-1 draw. A 2-1 Portugal win therefore wins the Over but returns the handicap stake, so the two bets do not always land together.
Portugal vs Denmark: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Score prediction
Team comparison
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
PortugalWWWWDenmarkWLWLOther bets worth a look
If you want a safer Portugal price, Portugal -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.52 (chance 64%) is the one we would consider. At -0.5 Portugal must win by one or more, so it keeps the stake alive in every Portugal win that the main tip needs. For goals, Over 3.5 goals at odds 2.43 (chance 40%) is a longer shot, and we would only add it as a small stake alongside the Over 2.5 tip.
- Portugal -0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.52 (chance 64%)
- Over 3.5 goals at odds 2.43 (chance 40%)
- Portugal -1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 2.39 (chance 41%), for those who want the bigger margin and accept the lower chance
Our view is simple: Portugal are unbeaten in this competition, strong at home and the better side on recent meetings. Denmark have conceded as often as they have scored, which is why we think the handicap has more value than the straight win. We stand by Portugal -1 and Over 2.5 goals.
Portugal vs Denmark: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.54 | 4.82 | 6.11 |
| Market average | 1.50 | 4.55 | 5.64 |
| Lowest odds | 1.43 | 4.04 | 4.94 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.14 | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.54 | 1.51 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 2.49 | 37.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.31 | 41.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.63 | 1.61 | 57.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 13/11/26, 08:15. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.7%.
Match odds
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which bet do we recommend for Portugal vs Denmark?
Portugal -1 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Over 2.5 goals (1.54).
Who will win Portugal vs Denmark?
As we see it: Portugal to win 63%, the draw 21%, Denmark to win 17%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
14 November 2026, 19:45, at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga. Referee: Rade Obrenović.
Who will be missing?
Portugal: no absences. Denmark: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 62% chance (odds 1.54), against 38% for under 2.5 (odds 2.60).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 58% (odds 1.63).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–1 (9.9%), 2–0 (9.4%), 1–1 (9.2%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.