Bet with Mino Casino →Our tip for Poland vs Sweden (UEFA Nations League, 17 November 2026, 19:45): Draw or Sweden (X2) at odds of 1.62. Second tip: Both teams to score at odds of 1.52. The bookmakers' odds give Poland 41%, the draw 26% and Sweden 34%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Poland vs Sweden prediction and betting preview
Poland host Sweden in Matchweek 6 of the UEFA Nations League, with kick-off at 19:45 on 17 November 2026. The home side sit third on four points, the visitors top the table on ten, yet the bookmakers still make Poland the slight favourites. We think that gap says more about the prices than about the standings, and it shapes our pick.
Main facts
- Likely result: Poland 1–1 Sweden, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Poland 3rd (4 points), Sweden 1st (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Poland 1W 1D 2L (7:4), Sweden 3W 1D 0L (7:3).
- H2H: 4 matches: Poland 1W 0D 3L, goals 7–9.
- Absences: Poland 0, Sweden 0.
Poland at home, with one loud result
In this competition Poland have 4 points from 4 matches: 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with goals 7:4. Their home record is the better half of that story, with 1 win, 1 draw and no defeats, and a 6:0 scoreline. That 6:0 against Romania is the one number that makes us respect them on their own ground.
Their last four matches in all competitions tell a more mixed tale. They beat Romania 6-0 at home, drew 0-0 with Bosnia & Herzegovina at home, lost 3-1 away to Sweden and lost 1-0 away to Bosnia & Herzegovina. Over those four, Poland have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with goals 7:4. Poland's form away from home is the weak spot, and we will come back to that.
Standings and form
League B – Group D
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sweden | 4 | 3-1-0 | 7:3 | 10 |
| 2 |  Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2-2-0 | 6:3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Poland | 4 | 1-1-2 | 7:4 | 4 |
| 4 |  Romania | 4 | 0-0-4 | 3:13 | 0 |
Recent matches
Poland
Home and away
Poland vs Sweden: last matches of both teams
Poland
Sweden
Sweden's away figures are quietly strong
Sweden lead this competition on 10 points from 4 matches, with 3 wins, 1 draw and no defeats, and goals 7:3. They have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match here. Away from home they have 1 win and 1 draw with no defeats, scoring 2:1 in those games, which is a modest return but a clean one.
Across their last four matches in all competitions, Sweden beat Romania 2-1 at home, beat Poland 3-1 at home, drew 1-1 away at Bosnia & Herzegovina and won 1-0 away at Romania. That is 3 wins, 1 draw and no defeats, with goals 7:3. Sweden are the side in form, and the table is the honest measure of their position in this competition.
Who will win Poland vs Sweden?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Meetings, and no absences to chase
The last four meetings have gone Sweden's way more often than not: Poland won 1, Sweden won 3, and the goals stand at 7:9. The most recent was Sweden 3-1 Poland, which is the same result that appears in both teams' recent form. The earlier ones were Sweden 3-2 Poland, Poland 2-0 Sweden and Sweden 3-2 Poland, so the head-to-head favours the visitors more than the current odds do.
No absences have been reported for either side, so there is no team news to shift the picture before the kick-off.
Head to head
All matchesPoland vs Sweden: injuries, suspensions, absences
Poland
- No reported absences
Sweden
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Odds, chances and our main tip
The bookmakers' chances are Poland 40% (best odds 2.28), draw 24% (best odds 3.74) and Sweden 35% (best odds 2.59). The bookmaker margin on the match result is 9.2%. The market is leaning towards Poland, while the table leans towards Sweden, and we side with the market on this one.
Our main tip is Poland or draw (1X) at odds 1.62, with a chance of 59%. We would not back Sweden to win outright at these prices, and we see the home side's floor as the strongest part of the case.
- Poland at home have 1 win, 1 draw and no defeats in this competition.
- The bookmakers give Poland or the draw a 59% chance.
- The best price on offer is 1.62, which is short for that chance.
The main tip wins on 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 and 2-2, and loses on 1-2 and 0-1.
Our second tip is both teams to score at odds 1.52, with a chance of 60%. Sweden have scored in 3 of their last 4 matches, and they have not failed to score in any of them. The expected total of about 3 goals supports that price. The second tip wins on 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2, and loses on 1-0 and 0-1.
Poland vs Sweden: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.28 | 3.74 | 2.88 |
| Market average | 2.26 | 3.62 | 2.74 |
| Lowest odds | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.59 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.59 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.20 | 41.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.63 | 34.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.52 | 1.50 | 62.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.47 | 37.8% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 13/11/26, 08:07. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 8.5%.
Team comparison
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
PolandLWLDSwedenWDWWWhat the bookmakers expect beyond the result
We have no third bet to add, so the two tips stand alone. For context, these are the market expectations and not our recommendations:
- Over 2.5 goals: chance 57%, best odds 1.60; under 2.5: chance 43%, best odds 2.14.
- Over 3.5 goals: chance 35%, best odds 2.63; under 3.5: chance 59%, best odds 1.40.
- Most likely exact scores: 1-1 (11.2%), 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%).
The expected goals are Poland 2 and Sweden 1, which fits the likeliest scorelines. Our money stays on the home side or the draw, with both teams to score as the second option.
Poland vs Sweden: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Score prediction
Match odds
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which bet do we recommend for Poland vs Sweden?
Draw or Sweden (X2) (1.62); Both teams to score (1.52).
Who will win Poland vs Sweden?
As we see it: Poland to win 41%, the draw 26%, Sweden to win 34%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
17 November 2026, 19:45, at to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
Poland: no absences. Sweden: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 58% chance (odds 1.60), against 42% for under 2.5 (odds 2.25).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 62% (odds 1.52).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (8.8%), 1–0 (8.1%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.