Netherlands vs Greece tip, odds and prediction, 13 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Netherlands vs Greece prediction and betting preview

Holders of the home advantage, the Netherlands welcome Greece on 13 November 2026 at 19:45 for Matchweek 5 of the UEFA Nations League. Oddsmakers put the match total at roughly 3 goals, with the Netherlands priced near 2 and Greece near 1. The scorelines that come up most often are 2-0 at 10.4%, 1-0 at 9.9% and 2-1 at 9.9%. Taken together, these figures favour a goals-focused read first, with the home side as the secondary angle.

Dutch attack meets a careful Greek defence

In this competition the Netherlands have scored 1.8 goals per match and conceded 1.3. Greece have scored 1.3 and conceded only 0.8. So the Dutch shoot more, and Greece let in less. That is the whole matchup in two pairs of numbers.

Away from home, Greece have been the stronger side: two victories in two trips, with a 3:1 goal return. The Dutch have a tidy but limited home record in this competition, one win and one draw, scoring 3:2. We like the Greek back line on paper, yet a team averaging 1.8 goals per match in this competition is difficult to keep out for the full ninety minutes.

Form: Dutch goals and Greek draws

In their last four outings in every competition, the Dutch collected two victories and two draws, scoring seven and conceding five. Their 2-1 success away in Serbia, followed by another 2-1 win in the Netherlands over the same opponent, pointed to a team that keeps putting the ball in the back of the net, and that consistency is the trait we back most.

Across every competition, Greece's last four matches produced two wins and two draws, with goals reading 5:3. They won away 2-1 at Serbia and 1-0 at Germany, while their home games ended 0-0 against Germany and 2-2 against the Netherlands. Greece rarely concede much, but they haven't always kept a clean sheet at home.

Note that these form figures cover all competitions, while the table and the per-match numbers above are of this competition only. The two sets do not contradict each other; they simply measure different things.

Three meetings, two wins for the Netherlands

Recent head-to-head form favours the Dutch: across the last three encounters they have collected two victories and a draw without a single defeat, scoring six and conceding two. The latest clash ended 2-2 in Greece on 1 October 2026. Earlier, Greece fell 1-0 at home on 16 October 2023, and a 3-0 home win on 7 September 2023 had already gone the Netherlands' way.

Greece have gone winless in those three head-to-head clashes, and we don't see that as mere chance. Even so, one of them finished 2-2, a sign that Greece are capable of finding the net when the situation demands it.

Nobody missing on either side

Neither squad has any injury or suspension problems to report, which lets both managers pick their best available lineups. Because the selection picture is clear, the recent results can be taken at face value, with no need to speculate about who might be unavailable.

Our tip for Netherlands vs Greece: Over 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.64 (chance 60%) is our top pick. Of everything on the card, this is the bet we would place first, since both teams' recent form leans toward goals, and the price still seems fair to us.

• In 3 of their last 4 matches across all competitions, more than 2.5 goals were scored.
• Greece had more than 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
• Bookmakers are forecasting roughly 3 goals overall in this fixture.
• Bookmakers price the over at 60% or higher, with the best available odds at 1.64.

The wager pays out on 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1, and it fails on 2-0, 1-0 and 1-1. A 2-0 Dutch victory, the most probable scoreline on its own, would sink it. That downside is real, and we are willing to live with it, since the Dutch have repeatedly shown they can find the net more than once. A modest stake makes more sense here, but we still see it as the sensible opening wager.

Our other tip: Netherlands to win

Our No. 2 selection is a home-win bet on the Netherlands at 1.53, with an implied chance of 63%. Stakes should stay modest, but we back the Oranje to collect all three points. Across their last four outings they have picked up two victories and remained unbeaten. They top the standings with 8 points, tied with Greece, and on home soil they have recorded one win and one draw, with no defeats.

Past meetings lean the Netherlands' way: they took 2 of the last 3, while Greece picked up none. The bet lands on 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-0 or 3-1, and the only result that sinks it is a 1-1 draw. Covering that many scorelines is what gives the second tip its stronger chance of the pair.

Other prices we would consider

Looking to hedge without opposing either pick? A handful of other selections also suit this fixture. Our preferred options are these:

• Over 1.5 goals is available at odds 1.20 with an 80% chance, a low-priced selection that pairs nicely with our main tip.
• Netherlands -0.5 at odds 1.52, with a chance of 64%, pays out only when the Dutch win by at least one goal, which makes it a natural pick for anyone siding with the home team.
• Backing both sides to find the net at 1.71 gives a 55% chance, and it suits anyone who thinks Greece will score at least once.

The score we would write down

The scoreline the market favours is 2-0, at 10.4%. Our own pick is 2-1: it is one of the scores where both of our tips land, and it reflects a Dutch side averaging 1.8 goals a match against a Greek side averaging 1.3. The home team, we reckon, is more likely to find the net than to ship goals, while a Greece win at 6.37 is a price we would leave alone.