Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Manchester City v Brighton takes place on 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at Etihad Stadium (Manchester); Craig Pawson will referee. We back Manchester City (57%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Manchester City vs Brighton: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.72 | 4.56 | 4.81 |
| Market average | 1.67 | 4.34 | 4.53 |
| Lowest odds | 1.56 | 4.05 | 4.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.11 | 84.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 1.44 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.73 | 34.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.11 | 45.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.75 | 2.58 | 36.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 31/10/26, 09:22. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Manchester City 2–1 Brighton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Manchester City 2nd (21 points), Brighton 3rd (19 points).
- Form in the competition: Manchester City 7W 0D 1L (20:9), Brighton 5W 1D 2L (23:7).
- H2H: 21 matches: Manchester City 13W 4D 4L, goals 48–19.
- Absences: Manchester City 1, Brighton 8.
Who will win Manchester City vs Brighton?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Manchester City vs Brighton: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Manchester City vs Brighton: injuries, suspensions, absences
Manchester City
- A. Semenyoknee injury · will miss the match
Brighton
- F. Azeezabsence · will miss the match
- E. Fergusonankle injury · will miss the match
- K. Mitomahamstring injury · will miss the match
- P. Struijkabsence · will miss the match
- S. Tzimasknee injury · will miss the match
- Z. Yohannainjury · will miss the match
- C. Andresmuscle injury · doubtful
- F. Kadiogluhip injury · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Manchester City vs Brighton: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 8 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 9 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 8 | 3-2-3 | 12:14 | 11 |
| 13 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 14 |  Everton | 8 | 2-4-2 | 8:9 | 10 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Manchester City
Home and away
Manchester City vs Brighton: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Manchester City: 2nd, 21 points from 9 matches (7W 0D 2L). Brighton: 3rd, 19 points (6W 1D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Manchester City 2.5 scored and 1.1 conceded, Brighton 2.9 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Manchester City: 7W 0D 1L, goals 20–9; Brighton: 5W 1D 2L, goals 23–7.
- Head to head. Head to head over 21 meetings: Manchester City 13 wins, Brighton 4 wins, plus 4 draws; goals 48–19.
What to expect
We make Manchester City the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–1 (9.7%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.48), with a probability of 65% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 64% and over 2.5 goals is 65%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 21; Manchester City 13 wins, 4 draws, Brighton 4 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.2 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Manchester City 20–9, Brighton 23–7.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 65%.
- Not available: Manchester City 1, Brighton 8.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 64%, odds up to 1.50). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Manchester City: A. Semenyo. Not available for Brighton: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson, K. Mitoma, P. Struijk, S. Tzimas, Z. Yohanna, C. Andres, F. Kadioglu. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Manchester City vs Brighton: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
Manchester CityLLWWWBrightonWLWWWManchester City vs Brighton: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Manchester City vs Brighton: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Manchester City vs Brighton?
On the result, our pick is Manchester City to win (1.72); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.48). Prefer less risk? Go for Manchester City or draw (1X).
Who will win Manchester City vs Brighton?
As we see it: Manchester City to win 57%, the draw 22%, Brighton to win 21%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
31 October 2026, 15:00, at Etihad Stadium, Manchester. Referee: Craig Pawson.
Who will be missing?
Manchester City: A. Semenyo. Brighton: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson, K. Mitoma, P. Struijk, S. Tzimas, Z. Yohanna, C. Andres, F. Kadioglu. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 65% chance (odds 1.48), against 35% for under 2.5 (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 64% (odds 1.50).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–1 (9.7%), 1–1 (9.2%), 2–0 (7.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.