Bet with Mino Casino →Our tip for Hungary vs Northern Ireland (UEFA Nations League, 17 November 2026, 19:45): Hungary to win at odds of 1.90. Second tip: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.52. The bookmakers' odds give Hungary 51%, the draw 28% and Northern Ireland 22%. The most likely score is 1–0.
Hungary vs Northern Ireland prediction and betting preview
Hungary host Northern Ireland on 17 November 2026 at 19:45 in UEFA Nations League Matchweek 6, and it is a match where the table and the recent results point in slightly different directions. Northern Ireland sit top of the group on 8 points, Hungary are second on 7. Both tables cover this competition only. We have gone through the form, the goals, the meetings and the bookmakers' numbers, and we have a view on where the value lies.
Main facts
- Likely result: Hungary 1–0 Northern Ireland, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Hungary 2nd (7 points), Northern Ireland 1st (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Hungary 2W 1D 1L (3:2), Northern Ireland 2W 2D 0L (4:0).
- H2H: 2 matches: Hungary 1W 1D 0L, goals 1–0.
- Absences: Hungary 0, Northern Ireland 0.
How are the two sides arriving?
Hungary have had a mixed run. In this competition they have won 2 and drawn 1 of their 4 games, losing the other one, and they have scored 3 goals while conceding 2. Their last four matches in all competitions brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with the 0-1 home loss to Ukraine the blemish that stands out. They did bounce back, beating Georgia 1-0 at home and then winning 2-1 away at Ukraine.
Northern Ireland look the more settled side on paper. They are unbeaten in this competition, with 2 wins and 2 draws, and their last four matches in all competitions yielded 2 wins and 2 draws without a single defeat. That is a team that has been hard to beat rather than one that has been swept away by anyone.
Who will win Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Who scores, and who keeps the door shut?
Northern Ireland have been the more productive side in this competition, averaging 1.0 goal per match against Hungary's 0.8. The defensive picture is where the gap is really visible. Northern Ireland have conceded nothing in this competition, while Hungary have let in 0.5 per match. In their last four games Northern Ireland kept a clean sheet every time, which is a strong run by any measure.
Hungary are not poor at the back, though. They kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last four matches, and their scoring has come in small amounts. We see a game where neither side is likely to run riot.
What do the last meetings tell us?
The head to head is short. Hungary have won one of the last two meetings and the other ended 0-0 on 28/9/26. Northern Ireland have not won either of them. The 1-0 Hungary win came on 29/3/22 in the earlier meeting. Two games are hardly a trend, but they do show that Hungary have found a way past this opponent before.
Hungary vs Northern Ireland: last matches of both teams
Hungary
Northern Ireland
Head to head
All matchesIs anyone missing for either side?
No absences have been reported for either Hungary or Northern Ireland, so we are looking at the strongest version of both squads. That removes one of the usual reasons to hesitate and leaves the decision to the form and the numbers.
Hungary vs Northern Ireland: injuries, suspensions, absences
Hungary
- No reported absences
Northern Ireland
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
HungaryWWDLNorthern IrelandDWDWOur tip for Hungary vs Northern Ireland: Hungary to win
Yes, we do, at 1.83. The bookmakers give Hungary a 50% chance at those odds, and we think that figure is fair for a home side that has the better of the head to head and has been more competitive at home than its record suggests. Our reasons:
- Hungary won 2 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
- Hungary lost only 1 of their last 4 matches.
- At home Hungary have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in this competition.
- Hungary won 1 of the last 2 meetings, while Northern Ireland won none.
The main tip is Hungary to win at odds 1.83, with the bookmakers' chance at 50%. The bet wins on 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1, and loses on 1-1, 0-0 and 0-1. The draw is the one result that really hurts us here, and the 27% the bookmakers put on it is a reminder that Northern Ireland's stubbornness can cost a home side points. We still think the home edge is enough. We would not back Northern Ireland at 4.11 on this evidence, since the market already sees them as the underdog and we have nothing in their numbers that persuades us otherwise.
Hungary vs Northern Ireland: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.90 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| Market average | 1.86 | 3.36 | 4.37 |
| Lowest odds | 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.11 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.37 | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 2.34 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.51 | 60.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.15 | 2.12 | 43.8% |
| BTTS – no | 1.67 | 1.65 | 56.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 13/11/26, 08:07. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.5%.
What about the goals market?
Our second tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.52, which the bookmakers rate at 60%. The case rests on the defensive records. Hungary have had more than 2.5 goals in only 1 of their last 4 matches, and Northern Ireland have done the same in only 1 of theirs. Northern Ireland kept a clean sheet in all 4 of their recent games, and the expected total is about 2 goals. The bet wins on 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-0 and 0-1, and loses only on 2-1. A 2-1 finish is the one likely score that breaks it, so we are not pretending it is risk free.
The wider market tells the same story. Over 2.5 goals sits at a 40% chance, while Both teams to score is at 44% for yes and 56% for no. The bookmaker margin on the match result is 8.6%, which is worth keeping in mind when you compare prices. The most likely exact scores are 1-0 at 14.8%, 1-1 at 12.5% and 0-0 at 10.5%, which describes what the bookmakers expect, not what we expect.
Hungary vs Northern Ireland: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Score prediction
Standings and form
League B – Group B
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2-2-0 | 4:0 | 8 |
| 2 | Hungary | 4 | 2-1-1 | 3:2 | 7 |
| 3 |  Ukraine | 4 | 1-1-2 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 4 |  Georgia | 4 | 0-2-2 | 0:2 | 2 |
Recent matches
Hungary
Home and away
Our last word
We like Hungary to win at home, and we like the Under 2.5 goals bet alongside it. We have no other bets to offer for this match. If you back the home side, you are betting on a team that has been beaten by a 1-0 scoreline recently and has still found the right result. Keep the stakes sensible and enjoy the game.
Match odds
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which bet do we recommend for Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
Hungary to win (1.90); Under 2.5 goals (1.52).
Who will win Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
As we see it: Hungary to win 51%, the draw 28%, Northern Ireland to win 22%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
17 November 2026, 19:45, at to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
Hungary: no absences. Northern Ireland: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 39% chance (odds 2.40), against 61% for under 2.5 (odds 1.52).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 44% (odds 2.15).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–0 (14.8%), 1–1 (12.5%), 0–0 (10.5%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.