Bet with Mino Casino →Our tip for Greece vs Serbia (UEFA Nations League, 16 November 2026, 19:45): Both teams to score at odds of 1.87. Second tip: Greece to win at odds of 1.42. The bookmakers' odds give Greece 67%, the draw 20% and Serbia 13%. The most likely score is 2–0.
Greece vs Serbia prediction and betting preview
We think Greece will beat Serbia in the UEFA Nations League on 16 November 2026, and our tip is Greece to win at odds of 1.87, a chance the bookmakers put at 50%. Kick-off is at 19:45. The price is short, but the numbers on this page point the same way.
Main facts
- Likely result: Greece 2–0 Serbia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Greece 2nd (8 points), Serbia 4th (0 points).
- Form in the competition: Greece 2W 2D 0L (5:3), Serbia 0W 0D 4L (3:8).
- H2H: 1 match: Greece 1W 0D 0L, goals 2–1.
- Absences: Greece 0, Serbia 0.
Greece's form in this competition
Greece sit second in this competition with 8 points from four matches, two wins and two draws without a defeat. They have scored 5 and conceded 3, or 1.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match. The soft spot is at home, where they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses, with goals 2:2.
Standings and form
League A – Group B
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | 2-2-0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | 2-2-0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | 1-2-1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 3:8 | 0 |
Recent matches
Greece
Home and away
Serbia still searching for a first win
Serbia are fourth with 0 points after four matches, and they have lost every one of them. They have scored 3 and conceded 8, which is 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded per match. Both defeats away from home came with goals 1:4 in total.
Who will win Greece vs Serbia?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Four matches each, all competitions
The table and the season figures above cover this competition only. The recent matches below cover all competitions, so the two pictures are not the same thing, and we have kept them apart on purpose.
Greece's last four matches in all competitions brought 2 wins and 2 draws, with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of them. Greece kept a clean sheet in 2 and failed to score in 1.
Serbia's last four all-competition matches were defeats, with 3 goals scored and 8 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of them, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 3. Serbia did not keep a clean sheet in any of the four and failed to score in 1. Their most recent meeting with Greece was one of those defeats, so they have been on the losing end of this matchup before.
Greece vs Serbia: last matches of both teams
Greece
Serbia
Head to head
All matchesOne meeting, and it went Greece's way
There is only one previous meeting to go on, so we will not lean on it too hard. Serbia lost 1-2 to Greece on 24/9/26, which is the only result between the two sides. Greece have won it, Serbia have won none, and the head-to-head stands at 2:1 in goals for Greece. It is a small sample, but it does not argue against the favourite.
Greece vs Serbia: injuries, suspensions, absences
Greece
- No reported absences
Serbia
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
GreeceDDWWSerbiaLLLLNobody reported out on either side
No absences are reported for either Greece or Serbia, so neither coach has an injury list to work around. The line-ups should be as close to full strength as they get, and the result will come down to form and to what the teams do on the night.
Why we back Greece at 1.87
The price is short, and we are not going to pretend a 1.87 is cheap. But the evidence here is consistent, and it is the reason we are willing to take it:
- Greece have 8 points in this competition, while Serbia have none.
- Greece have won 2 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
- Greece have lost none of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
- Serbia have won none of their last 4 matches in all competitions.
The main tip wins on 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1, and it loses only on 1-1. The draw is the risk, and the bookmakers give it 19% at best odds of 4.98. We are not worried by it enough to change the view.
Under 3.5 goals as our second angle
Our second tip is under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.45, a chance the market puts at 63%. Greece have had more than 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 4 matches, and they kept a clean sheet in 2 of those four, so the defensive side of their recent record is the part we trust more. The price is fair rather than generous, and we would only take it as a second angle, not as the main play.
The second tip wins on 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1 and 3-0. It loses on 3-1, so a Greek win by that exact score is the one outcome that would end it.
Greece vs Serbia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Score prediction
What the market expects, and why we agree
The bookmakers expect over 2.5 goals at a 59% chance (best odds 1.54) and under 2.5 at 41% (best odds 2.26). Over 3.5 is priced at 37% (best odds 2.47), and both teams to score sits almost level, at 51% for yes (best odds 1.79) and 49% for no (best odds 1.87). These are the market's expectations, not our tips, and we have not added any other bets to our selection.
Greece won the meeting that the page has, they have the better points tally in this competition, and they have lost none of their last four matches. Serbia have won none of their last four. Those are the reasons we are on Greece, and the under is the smaller bet that goes with them.
Greece vs Serbia: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.42 | 4.98 | 7.40 |
| Market average | 1.37 | 4.64 | 6.97 |
| Lowest odds | 1.34 | 4.10 | 6.09 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.57 | 58.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.26 | 2.23 | 41.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.47 | 2.47 | 37.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.84 | 50.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.90 | 1.87 | 49.5% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 13/11/26, 12:10. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 8.9%.
Match odds
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which bet do we recommend for Greece vs Serbia?
Both teams to score (1.87); Greece to win (1.42).
Who will win Greece vs Serbia?
As we see it: Greece to win 67%, the draw 20%, Serbia to win 13%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
16 November 2026, 19:45, at to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
Greece: no absences. Serbia: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 59% chance (odds 1.60), against 41% for under 2.5 (odds 2.26).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 50% (odds 1.87).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–0 (11.5%), 1–0 (10.7%), 2–1 (9.8%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.