Bet with Mino Casino →Our tip for Germany vs Netherlands (UEFA Nations League, 16 November 2026, 19:45): Germany to win at odds of 1.89. Second tip: Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.50. The bookmakers' odds give Germany 51%, the draw 24% and Netherlands 25%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Germany vs Netherlands prediction and betting preview
Can Germany turn their home form into a win over the side that tops this UEFA Nations League table? Germany meet the Netherlands on 16 November 2026 at 19:45 in Matchweek 6. We like the home side, though not by a wide margin.
Main facts
- Likely result: Germany 1–1 Netherlands, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Germany 3rd (5 points), Netherlands 1st (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Germany 1W 2D 1L (3:2), Netherlands 2W 2D 0L (7:5).
- H2H: 10 matches: Germany 4W 4D 2L, goals 16–17.
- Absences: Germany 0, Netherlands 0.
Netherlands on top, Germany chasing the pack
In this competition only, the Netherlands sit first with 8 points from 4 matches, two wins and two draws, and no defeats. Germany are third with 5 points from one win, two draws and one loss. Those are the standings that matter for this fixture, but the wider picture is different. In all competitions, Germany's last four matches brought one win, two draws and one defeat, the defeat being a 0-1 home loss to Greece. The Netherlands have not lost any of their last four in any competition, and they have won two of them.
Who will win Germany vs Netherlands?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Scoring is the Dutch strength, conceding is the cost
The Netherlands average 1.8 goals per match in this competition, against Germany's 0.8. They also concede 1.3 a game, against Germany's 0.5. That is a side that scores freely and lets in a few. Germany's home record in this competition reads one win and one defeat, with two goals scored and one conceded. It is a small sample, and we would not build a theory on it, but it does show a home side that has not yet found a way to put a comfortable distance between itself and its opponents.
Recent results: two teams that keep drawing
Germany's most recent meeting with the Netherlands ended 1-1 in the Netherlands, on 24 September 2026. Germany's own last four in all competitions included two draws, one of them a 0-0 away at Greece, and the Netherlands also drew 2-2 away at Greece in their run.
Germany vs Netherlands: last matches of both teams
Germany
Netherlands
Head to head
All matchesTen meetings, one edge for Germany
Across the last ten meetings, Germany have won four, the Netherlands two, and four games have been drawn. The goals are almost level, 16 for Germany and 17 for the Netherlands. The head-to-head therefore gives Germany a small edge rather than a dominant pattern. The Dutch have scored more over the ten games, but Germany have collected more wins, which is the number we care about when choosing a side to back.
No absences on either side
No absences have been reported for Germany or the Netherlands. There is no late injury to factor into the price, and the two squads can be judged on their recent form and their home and away records.
Germany vs Netherlands: injuries, suspensions, absences
Germany
- No reported absences
Netherlands
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
GermanyDWLDNetherlandsWDWDOur tip for Germany vs Netherlands: Germany to win
Our main tip is Germany to win at odds of 1.80, a chance of 51% according to the bookmakers. The bookmaker margin on the match result is 8.5%, so the price is not generous, but we think the home side have enough in their favour to justify it.
- Germany lost only 1 of their last 4 matches in all competitions, which suggests they are hard to beat at the moment.
- At home, Germany have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in this competition, a record that is at least productive on their own ground.
- Germany have won 4 of the last 10 meetings with the Netherlands, so the head-to-head gives them no reason to fear the visitors.
- The bookmakers rate Germany at a 51% chance at best odds of 1.80, which is the price we are happy to take.
The main tip wins on a 2-1, 1-0 or 2-0 home success. It loses on a 1-1 draw, a 1-2 away win or a 2-2 draw. The most likely exact scores in the market are 1-1 at 9.7%, 2-1 at 9.5% and 1-0 at 7.2%, so the 1-1 draw is the result that would hurt us most, and it is also the score that comes up most often in the market.
Goals: under 3.5 at 1.56 as our second tip
Our second tip is under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.56, which the bookmakers put at 59%. We like it as a companion to the home win rather than as a standalone idea. Germany have not had a match with more than 2.5 goals in their last four, and they kept a clean sheet in two of those four, which gives the bet a real basis. The Netherlands are the counterweight, having had more than 2.5 goals in three of their last four matches. The second tip wins on 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0 and 1-2, and loses only on a 2-2 draw. The market expects about three goals in total, with Germany at 2 and the Netherlands at 1.
Germany vs Netherlands: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.89 | 4.12 | 3.90 |
| Market average | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.62 |
| Lowest odds | 1.75 | 3.45 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.47 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.51 | 2.46 | 37.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.22 | 41.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.49 | 62.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.48 | 37.5% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 13/11/26, 12:10. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 9.3%.
Germany vs Netherlands: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Score prediction
Our verdict on the card
We would back Germany to win at 1.80 and keep the under 3.5 goals bet at 1.56 alongside it. The Netherlands are the more productive side in this competition, and a 1-1 or a 2-2 would not surprise anyone who has followed these two. We add no other bets to the card, because the only selections we are prepared to make are the two above.
Standings and form
League A – Group B
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2-2-0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | 2-2-0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1-2-1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 3:8 | 0 |
Recent matches
Germany
Home and away
Match odds
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which bet do we recommend for Germany vs Netherlands?
Germany to win (1.89); Over 2.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Germany vs Netherlands?
As we see it: Germany to win 51%, the draw 24%, Netherlands to win 25%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
16 November 2026, 19:45, at to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
Germany: no absences. Netherlands: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 63% chance (odds 1.50), against 37% for under 2.5 (odds 2.51).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 62% (odds 1.53).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (7.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.