Bet with Mino Casino →Our tip for North Macedonia vs Slovenia (UEFA Nations League, 16 November 2026, 19:45): Slovenia to win at odds of 1.70. Second tip: At least one team fails to score at odds of 1.55. The bookmakers' odds give North Macedonia 17%, the draw 26% and Slovenia 58%. The most likely score is 0–1.
North Macedonia vs Slovenia prediction and betting preview
Our main tip is Slovenia to win at odds 1.70, and the bookmakers give them a 58% chance. We like the price less than the side. At 1.70 there is little value left, but Slovenia are the team with the better results and the more reliable defence, and we would rather back that than take a longer price on the home side.
Main facts
- Likely result: North Macedonia 0–1 Slovenia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: North Macedonia 4th (0 points), Slovenia 2nd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: North Macedonia 0W 0D 4L (0:10), Slovenia 2W 1D 1L (5:3).
- H2H: 4 matches: North Macedonia 1W 2D 1L, goals 4–5.
- Absences: North Macedonia 0, Slovenia 0.
Slovenia have the better form
The main thing to keep in mind is that the table and the season figures cover this competition only, while the last four matches cover all competitions. In the Nations League, Slovenia sit second with 7 points from four games, while North Macedonia are fourth with 0 points. That gap is real, and the recent results back it up. Slovenia have won half of their recent matches, and North Macedonia have not won any of theirs.
- Slovenia have won 2 of their last 4 matches.
- Slovenia have lost only 1 of their last 4 matches.
- North Macedonia have won none of their last 4 matches.
- Slovenia sit second in the table with 7 points, North Macedonia fourth with 0.
Slovenia's away record in this competition is one win and one defeat from two trips, which is not a lot of evidence, but it does not argue against them. The home side's record is worse. At home in this competition North Macedonia have lost both of their games and conceded five goals, and that is the number we keep returning to when we think about the price.
Who will win North Macedonia vs Slovenia?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
A goal drought that makes the second tip
Our second tip is that at least one team fails to score, at odds 1.55, which the bookmakers rate at 59%. The case for it starts with North Macedonia. They have no clean sheets in their last four matches, and they have not scored in any of them. That is a team that has stopped finding the net, and it is the reason we think the home side is unlikely to make this game a contest.
Slovenia have kept two clean sheets in their last four matches, and they failed to score in one. We like that balance: a team that rarely lets goals in and an opponent that rarely scores. The second tip wins on 0-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 0-3, and loses on 1-1 and 1-2. A narrow Slovenia win with the home side scoring nothing wins the bet, while a 1-2 finish, where both sides score, loses it.
Standings and form
League B – Group A
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 4 | 4-0-0 | 11:1 | 12 |
| 2 |  Slovenia | 4 | 2-1-1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 4 |  North Macedonia | 4 | 0-0-4 | 0:10 | 0 |
Recent matches
North Macedonia
Home and away
North Macedonia vs Slovenia: last matches of both teams
North Macedonia
Slovenia
Meetings and what the market expects
The head-to-head record shows that the four most recent meetings have produced one win each and two draws, with a total of 4 goals for North Macedonia and 5 for Slovenia. The most recent of those meetings was Slovenia's 2-0 win over North Macedonia, and that result sits well with the form picture. We would not read too much into the older draws, but they do show that this fixture has not been one-sided every time.
The market agrees with the form. Slovenia are at 58% with the best odds at 1.70, North Macedonia are at 15% at best odds 6.33, and the draw is at 24% at best odds 3.86. The most likely exact scores are 0-1 at 15.4%, 0-2 at 13.1% and 1-1 at 10.8%. Our main tip wins on 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 and 0-3 and loses on 1-1 and 0-0, so the bet depends on Slovenia finding a way to win rather than on a particular margin.
We are backing Slovenia because they have won more of their recent matches, lost fewer of them, and sit well clear of North Macedonia in the table. North Macedonia have not scored in any of their last four matches, and that is the detail that makes us comfortable with the price.
North Macedonia vs Slovenia: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 6.33 | 3.86 | 1.70 |
| Market average | 5.54 | 3.60 | 1.61 |
| Lowest odds | 4.73 | 3.24 | 1.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.33 | 68.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.23 | 2.23 | 42.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 1.65 | 57.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.24 | 2.24 | 40.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.55 | 1.55 | 59.1% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 13/11/26, 12:10. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 8.6%.
North Macedonia vs Slovenia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Score prediction
Match odds
North Macedonia vs Slovenia: injuries, suspensions, absences
North Macedonia
- No reported absences
Slovenia
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
North MacedoniaLLLLSloveniaWLWDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which bet do we recommend for North Macedonia vs Slovenia?
Slovenia to win (1.70); At least one team fails to score (1.55).
Who will win North Macedonia vs Slovenia?
As we see it: North Macedonia to win 17%, the draw 26%, Slovenia to win 58%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
16 November 2026, 19:45, at to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
North Macedonia: no absences. Slovenia: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 43% chance (odds 2.23), against 57% for under 2.5 (odds 1.65).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 41% (odds 2.24).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 0–1 (15.3%), 0–2 (12.2%), 1–1 (11.4%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.