Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derry City v Dundalk takes place on 23 October 2026 · 19:45 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry); M. Lynch will referee. We back Derry City (55%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Derry City vs Dundalk: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.92 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Market average | 1.70 | 3.92 | 4.30 |
| Lowest odds | 1.65 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.15 | 80.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.57 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 2.33 | 40.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.57 | 2.39 | 38.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.56 | 59.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.27 | 40.8% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 23/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 7.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Derry City 1–1 Dundalk, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Derry City 5th (48 points), Dundalk 6th (45 points).
- H2H: 29 matches: Derry City 8W 12D 9L, goals 46–41.
- Absences: Derry City 0, Dundalk 0.
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Derry City vs Dundalk: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Derry City vs Dundalk: injuries, suspensions, absences
Derry City
- No reported absences
Dundalk
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Derry City vs Dundalk: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 36 | 20-8-8 | 59:38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 36 | 19-8-9 | 63:44 | 65 |
| 3 |  St Patrick's Athl. | 36 | 17-9-10 | 55:31 | 60 |
| 4 |  Shelbourne | 36 | 12-13-11 | 52:50 | 49 |
| 5 | Derry City | 36 | 11-15-10 | 50:47 | 48 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 36 | 11-12-13 | 55:59 | 45 |
| 7 |  Waterford | 36 | 10-13-13 | 54:61 | 43 |
| 8 |  Galway United | 36 | 10-12-14 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 36 | 10-10-16 | 44:57 | 40 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 36 | 5-10-21 | 28:66 | 25 |
Recent matches
Derry City
Home and away
Derry City vs Dundalk: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Derry City: 5th, 48 points from 36 matches (11W 15D 10L). Dundalk: 6th, 45 points (11W 12D 13L).
- Head to head. Head to head over 29 meetings: Derry City 8 wins, Dundalk 9 wins, plus 12 draws; goals 46–41.
What to expect
We make Derry City the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (10.3%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.54), with a probability of 61% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 59% and over 2.5 goals is 60%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 29; Derry City 8 wins, 12 draws, Dundalk 9 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.0 per match.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 60%.
- Not available: Derry City 0, Dundalk 0.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Other option: Over 2.5 goals (probability 60%, odds up to 1.64). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Derry City: no absences. Not available for Dundalk: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Derry City vs Dundalk: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Derry City vs Dundalk: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Derry City vs Dundalk?
On the result, our pick is Derry City to win (1.92); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.54). Prefer less risk? Go for Derry City or draw (1X).
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
As we see it: Derry City to win 55%, the draw 24%, Dundalk to win 22%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
23 October 2026, 19:45, at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry. Referee: M. Lynch.
Who will be missing?
Derry City: no absences. Dundalk: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 60% chance (odds 1.64), against 40% for under 2.5 (odds 2.40).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 59% (odds 1.57).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (10.3%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.0%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.