Bet with Mino Casino →Our tip for Denmark vs Norway (UEFA Nations League, 17 November 2026, 19:45): Denmark or draw (1X) at odds of 1.53. Second tip: Both teams to score at odds of 1.50. The bookmakers' odds give Denmark 37%, the draw 25% and Norway 37%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Denmark vs Norway prediction and betting preview
Denmark host Norway on 17 November 2026 at 19:45 in UEFA Nations League, Matchweek 6, and the numbers around this game are more interesting than the headline result suggests. The bookmakers split the match result almost evenly: Denmark win 38%, a draw 23%, Norway win 38%. The expected goals sit at 2 for each side, so about 4 goals in total. The most likely exact scores are 1-1 at 10.4%, 1-2 at 8.3% and 2-1 at 8.3%. We like the shape of this one, but we are not chasing a big price.
Main facts
- Likely result: Denmark 1–1 Norway, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Denmark 2nd (6 points), Norway 4th (3 points).
- Form in the competition: Denmark 2W 0D 2L (7:7), Norway 1W 0D 3L (6:8).
- H2H: 2 matches: Denmark 1W 0D 1L, goals 5–4.
- Absences: Denmark 0, Norway 0.
Attack against defence in this competition
Denmark have scored 1.8 goals per match in this competition and conceded 1.8. Norway have scored 1.5 and conceded 2.0. Those are the season figures of this competition only, and they tell a simple story. Denmark create a little more and leak a little less. Norway are the side that concedes more often, which is why we keep coming back to them when we think about the over.
Denmark's goals in this competition stand at 7:7, Norway's at 6:8. Both attacks are productive enough that a 2-2 is never a surprise here, yet neither defence has been strong enough to keep the other side quiet for long.
Who will win Denmark vs Norway?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Form that points two ways
Look at the last four matches in all competitions and the picture changes. Denmark have won 2 of their last 4, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded across those games. Norway have won only 1 of theirs and conceded 8 while scoring 6. Norway's recent run is the weaker of the two, and it includes a 3-2 win over Denmark on 24 September 2026, which they will remember.
Denmark's last four are a mixed bag: a 2-0 home win over Wales, a 2-4 home defeat to Portugal, a 1-0 win away at Wales, and the 2-3 defeat in Norway. Norway's run is a 3-2 win over Denmark, then 1-2 at home to Portugal, a 2-1 defeat away to Wales and a 2-1 defeat away to Portugal. Their away form is the thing we keep pointing at.
Standings and form
League A – Group D
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Portugal | 4 | 4-0-0 | 9:4 | 12 |
| 2 |  Denmark | 4 | 2-0-2 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 3 |  Wales | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 4 |  Norway | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:8 | 3 |
Recent matches
Denmark
Home and away
Denmark vs Norway: last matches of both teams
Denmark
Norway
The meetings and what they tell us
The head to head is tight. Denmark have won one of the last two meetings and Norway the other, with goals shared 5:4. The most recent was that 3-2 Norway win on 24 September 2026, and the one before it was Denmark's 3-1 win on 8 June 2024. Two games are not a trend, but they do show that neither side has a clear grip on this fixture. A surprise scoreline in either direction would not shock us.
Head to head
All matchesNo absences to weigh
Neither side has any reported absence, so the teams we see on paper should be the ones who take the pitch. There is no injury story to build a bet around, and we would not invent one. The decision rests on the form, the table and the scoring numbers.
Denmark vs Norway: injuries, suspensions, absences
Denmark
- No reported absences
Norway
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
DenmarkWLWLNorwayLLLWHow we would bet it
Our main tip is Denmark or draw (1X) at odds 1.44, with a chance of 62% from the bookmakers' odds. The price is short, and that is the first thing we want you to accept before backing it.
The reasons behind the tip:
- Denmark won 2 of their last 4 matches, while Norway won only 1 of theirs.
- Denmark sit 2nd in this competition with 6 points, Norway 4th with 3.
- Denmark have won 1 of their home matches in this competition and lost 1.
- The market gives the 1X a chance of 62% at best odds of 1.44.
The table and the season figures above are of this competition only. Denmark's form across all competitions is the four-match run listed earlier, and it is not the same as their league-style standing. The main tip wins on 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 and 1-0, and loses on 1-2 and 0-1.
Our second tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.45, a chance of 63% from the bookmakers' odds. Norway have been involved in four matches with more than 2.5 goals out of their last four, and Denmark have seen that in two of theirs. That is enough for us to take the over, though we would not go higher on it. The second tip wins on 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2, and loses on 1-1, 0-1 and 1-0.
We see the two tips pulling against each other on one scoreline. A 1-1 wins our main tip and loses the second, so the most likely score on the market is the one that splits the page.
Denmark vs Norway: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Score prediction
Alternatives we would leave alone
We have no other bets to recommend for this match, so the two tips above are the whole of our advice. The bookmakers do expect the over 3.5 goals at a chance of 41% and best odds of 2.25, and both teams to score at a chance of 65% with best odds of 1.42. We describe those figures as the market's view, not as bets we like. We would rather keep the stake on the two tips we have argued.
Denmark vs Norway: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.60 | 3.92 | 2.60 |
| Market average | 2.45 | 3.65 | 2.46 |
| Lowest odds | 2.36 | 3.26 | 2.37 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.48 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.47 | 2.44 | 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.25 | 2.25 | 40.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.57 | 36.3% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 13/11/26, 12:10. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 9.1%.
Most likely score: 1-1
The most likely exact score is 1-1 at 10.4%, which is the bookmakers' view and it lands right in the middle of this match. It is the scoreline that wins the main tip and loses the second, and that is why we think a stake split across both tips is a reasonable way to approach this game.
Match odds
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which bet do we recommend for Denmark vs Norway?
Denmark or draw (1X) (1.53); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Denmark vs Norway?
As we see it: Denmark to win 37%, the draw 25%, Norway to win 37%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
17 November 2026, 19:45, at to be confirmed.
Who will be missing?
Denmark: no absences. Norway: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 62% chance (odds 1.50), against 38% for under 2.5 (odds 2.47).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 64% (odds 1.50).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (10.4%), 1–2 (8.3%), 2–1 (8.3%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.