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Copa del Rey · round 128 · 27 October 2026 · 18:45

Castellonense vs Almería tip, odds and prediction, 27 October 2026, Copa del Rey

Castellonense
1–2
1Castellonense7.22
XDraw4.60
2Almería1.49

Top odds available · Updated 27/10/26, 18:00

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Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.

Castellonense entertain Almería on 27 October 2026 · 18:45 at Estadio Municipal de Castalia. Almería (65%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.

Castellonense vs Almería: tip and prediction
Result
Almería to win
1.49
Goals
Over 2.5 goals
1.76
Combo
Almería & over 2.5 goals
2.43
41% · fair combo odds
65%chance of the result
54%goals tip: chance
0–2likely score
≈ 3 goalstotal in the match
Safer option: Draw or Almería (X2) – probability 86%, odds up to 1.11.

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Castellonense vs Almería: odds from several bookmakers

Match result1X2
Top odds available7.224.601.49
Market average6.734.291.43
Lowest odds6.094.001.36
GoalsBestAverageChance
Over 1.5 goals1.241.2175.9%
Over 2.5 goals1.761.7453.8%
Under 2.5 goals2.082.0246.2%
Over 3.5 goals2.892.7633.4%
BTTS – yes1.911.8949.1%
BTTS – no1.911.8350.9%

Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 27/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 8.4%.

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Match at a glance

  • Likely result: Castellonense 0–2 Almería, roughly 3 goals in total.
  • Absences: Castellonense 0, Almería 0.

Who will win Castellonense vs Almería?

Castellonense14%
Draw22%
Almería65%

To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.

Castellonense vs Almería: more betting markets

Draw or Almería (X2)86.2% · fair odds 1.16 · best 1.11
Likely
Over 1.5 goals75.9% · fair odds 1.32 · best 1.24
Likely
Under 3.5 goals66.6% · fair odds 1.50 · best 1.40
Likely
Almería to win64.7% · fair odds 1.55 · best 1.49
Likely
Over 2.5 goals53.8% · fair odds 1.86 · best 1.76
Possible
Both teams score: no50.9% · fair odds 1.97 · best 1.91
Possible
Both teams score: yes49.1% · fair odds 2.04 · best 1.91
Outsider
Under 2.5 goals46.2% · fair odds 2.17 · best 2.08
Outsider
Over 3.5 goals33.4% · fair odds 3.00 · best 2.89
Outsider
Draw21.5% · fair odds 4.64 · best 4.60
Outsider
Castellonense to win13.8% · fair odds 7.27 · best 7.22
Outsider

Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.

Corners and cards

Cornersline 10.5 corners
Over 1.90 · Under 1.82
probability of over 48.9%

Most likely correct scores

0 : 212.2%
0 : 112.2%
1 : 29.7%
1 : 19.7%
0 : 38.1%
1 : 36.5%

Castellonense vs Almería: injuries, suspensions, absences

Castellonense

  • No reported absences

Almería

  • No reported absences

Absences can still change up to kick-off.

Castellonense vs Almería: our match analysis

Why this is our tip

    What to expect

    We make Almería the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 0–2 (12.2%). We expect goals and an open game.

    On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.76), with a probability of 54% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 49% and over 2.5 goals is 54%.

    Main points of the prediction

    1. Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 54%.
    2. Not available: Castellonense 0, Almería 0.

    Alternative tip: Both teams score: no

    Other option: Both teams score: no (probability 51%, odds up to 1.91). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.

    Absences

    Not available for Castellonense: no absences. Not available for Almería: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.

    Returns calculator

    Potential return0 €
    Net profit0 €
    Implied probability0%
    Market margin8.4%

    Castellonense vs Almería: common questions

    Which bet do we recommend for Castellonense vs Almería?

    On the result, our pick is Almería to win (1.49); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.76). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Almería (X2).

    Who will win Castellonense vs Almería?

    As we see it: Castellonense to win 14%, the draw 22%, Almería to win 65%.

    What is the kick-off time and venue?

    27 October 2026, 18:45, at Estadio Municipal de Castalia.

    Who will be missing?

    Castellonense: no absences. Almería: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.

    Will the game go over 2.5 goals?

    We give over 2.5 goals a 54% chance (odds 1.76), against 46% for under 2.5 (odds 2.08).

    Will both teams score?

    By our numbers, both sides scoring is 49% (odds 1.91).

    What correct score is most probable?

    In order: 0–2 (12.2%), 0–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (9.7%).

    Where do your predictions come from?

    It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.

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    18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.