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Copa del Rey · round 128 · 29 October 2026 · 18:00

Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC tip, odds and prediction, 29 October 2026, Copa del Rey

Poblense
1–2
1Poblense4.75
XDraw3.95
2AD Ceuta FC1.82

Top odds available · Updated 29/10/26, 18:00

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Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.

Poblense entertain AD Ceuta FC on 29 October 2026 · 18:00 at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla (Sa Pobla). AD Ceuta FC (53%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.

Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC: tip and prediction
Result
AD Ceuta FC to win
1.82
Goals
Both teams to score
1.70
Combo
AD Ceuta FC & over 2.5 goals
2.86
35% · fair combo odds
53%chance of the result
56%goals tip: chance
1–1likely score
≈ 3 goalstotal in the match
Safer option: Draw or AD Ceuta FC (X2) – probability 78%, odds up to 1.23.

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Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC: odds from several bookmakers

Match result1X2
Top odds available4.753.951.82
Market average4.133.741.74
Lowest odds3.803.421.60
GoalsBestAverageChance
Over 1.5 goals1.231.2176.3%
Over 2.5 goals1.741.7055.1%
Under 2.5 goals2.162.0844.9%
Over 3.5 goals2.832.6634.7%
BTTS – yes1.701.6655.7%
BTTS – no2.152.0944.3%

Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 29/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 8.7%.

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Match at a glance

  • Likely result: Poblense 1–1 AD Ceuta FC, roughly 3 goals in total.
  • Absences: Poblense 0, AD Ceuta FC 0.

Who will win Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC?

Poblense22%
Draw25%
AD Ceuta FC53%

To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.

Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC: more betting markets

Draw or AD Ceuta FC (X2)77.7% · fair odds 1.29 · best 1.23
Likely
Over 1.5 goals76.3% · fair odds 1.31 · best 1.23
Likely
Under 3.5 goals65.3% · fair odds 1.53 · best 1.44
Likely
Both teams score: yes55.7% · fair odds 1.79 · best 1.70
Possible
Over 2.5 goals55.1% · fair odds 1.82 · best 1.74
Possible
AD Ceuta FC to win53.0% · fair odds 1.89 · best 1.82
Possible
Under 2.5 goals44.9% · fair odds 2.23 · best 2.16
Outsider
Both teams score: no44.3% · fair odds 2.26 · best 2.15
Outsider
Over 3.5 goals34.7% · fair odds 2.88 · best 2.83
Outsider
Draw24.6% · fair odds 4.06 · best 3.95
Outsider
Poblense to win22.3% · fair odds 4.48 · best 4.75
Outsider

Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.

Corners and cards

Cornersline 9.5 corners
Over 2.09 · Under 1.65
probability of over 44.3%

Most likely correct scores

1 : 110.9%
0 : 19.9%
1 : 29.8%
0 : 28.9%
1 : 06.1%
2 : 16.0%

Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC: injuries, suspensions, absences

Poblense

  • No reported absences

AD Ceuta FC

  • No reported absences

Absences can still change up to kick-off.

Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC: our match analysis

Why this is our tip

    What to expect

    We make AD Ceuta FC the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (10.9%). We expect goals and an open game.

    On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.70), with a probability of 56% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 56% and over 2.5 goals is 55%.

    Main points of the prediction

    1. Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 55%.
    2. Not available: Poblense 0, AD Ceuta FC 0.

    Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes

    Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 56%, odds up to 1.70). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.

    Absences

    Not available for Poblense: no absences. Not available for AD Ceuta FC: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.

    Returns calculator

    Potential return0 €
    Net profit0 €
    Implied probability0%
    Market margin8.7%

    Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC: common questions

    Which bet do we recommend for Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC?

    On the result, our pick is AD Ceuta FC to win (1.82); on goals, Both teams to score (1.70). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or AD Ceuta FC (X2).

    Who will win Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC?

    As we see it: Poblense to win 22%, the draw 25%, AD Ceuta FC to win 53%.

    What is the kick-off time and venue?

    29 October 2026, 18:00, at Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla, Sa Pobla.

    Who will be missing?

    Poblense: no absences. AD Ceuta FC: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.

    Will the game go over 2.5 goals?

    We give over 2.5 goals a 55% chance (odds 1.74), against 45% for under 2.5 (odds 2.16).

    Will both teams score?

    By our numbers, both sides scoring is 56% (odds 1.70).

    What correct score is most probable?

    In order: 1–1 (10.9%), 0–1 (9.9%), 1–2 (9.8%).

    Where do your predictions come from?

    It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.

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    18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.