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Taça da Liga · quarter-final · 29 October 2026 · 20:45

Benfica vs GIL Vicente tip, odds and prediction, 29 October 2026, Taça da Liga

1Benfica1.28
XDraw6.46
2GIL Vicente10.05

Top odds available · Updated 29/10/26, 18:00

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Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.

Benfica entertain GIL Vicente on 29 October 2026 · 20:45 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz) (Lisbon), with J. Bessa the man in the middle. Benfica (74%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.

Benfica vs GIL Vicente: tip and prediction
Result
Benfica to win
1.28
Goals
Both teams to score
1.80
Combo
Benfica & over 2.5 goals
1.79
56% · fair combo odds
74%chance of the result
53%goals tip: chance
2–0likely score
≈ 4 goalstotal in the match
Safer option: Benfica or draw (1X) – probability 90%, odds up to 1.08. The result alone pays short odds, so we would back a goals tip with it.

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Benfica vs GIL Vicente: odds from several bookmakers

Match result1X2
Top odds available1.286.4610.05
Market average1.255.839.31
Lowest odds1.205.327.53
GoalsBestAverageChance
Over 1.5 goals1.131.0984.9%
Over 2.5 goals1.421.3867.3%
Under 2.5 goals3.012.8432.7%
Over 3.5 goals2.041.9947.2%
BTTS – yes1.801.7553.0%
BTTS – no2.051.9747.0%

Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 29/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 8.2%.

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Match at a glance

  • Likely result: Benfica 2–0 GIL Vicente, roughly 4 goals in total.
  • H2H: 23 matches: Benfica 19W 2D 2L, goals 57–16.
  • Absences: Benfica 0, GIL Vicente 0.

Who will win Benfica vs GIL Vicente?

Benfica74%
Draw16%
GIL Vicente10%

To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.

Benfica vs GIL Vicente: more betting markets

Benfica or draw (1X)90.0% · fair odds 1.11 · best 1.08
Likely
Over 1.5 goals84.9% · fair odds 1.18 · best 1.13
Likely
Benfica to win74.1% · fair odds 1.35 · best 1.28
Likely
Over 2.5 goals67.3% · fair odds 1.49 · best 1.42
Likely
Both teams score: yes53.0% · fair odds 1.89 · best 1.80
Possible
Under 3.5 goals52.8% · fair odds 1.89 · best 1.82
Possible
Over 3.5 goals47.2% · fair odds 2.12 · best 2.04
Outsider
Both teams score: no47.0% · fair odds 2.13 · best 2.05
Outsider
Under 2.5 goals32.7% · fair odds 3.06 · best 3.01
Outsider
Draw15.9% · fair odds 6.29 · best 6.46
Outsider
GIL Vicente to win10.0% · fair odds 10.02 · best 10.05
Outsider

Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.

Corners and cards

Cornersline 9.5 corners
Over 1.74 · Under 1.99
probability of over 53.3%

Most likely correct scores

2 : 010.7%
3 : 09.3%
2 : 19.1%
1 : 08.3%
3 : 17.9%
1 : 17.0%

Benfica vs GIL Vicente: injuries, suspensions, absences

Benfica

  • No reported absences

GIL Vicente

  • No reported absences

Absences can still change up to kick-off.

Benfica vs GIL Vicente: our match analysis

Why this is our tip

  1. Head to head. Head to head over 23 meetings: Benfica 19 wins, GIL Vicente 2 wins, plus 2 draws; goals 57–16.

What to expect

We make Benfica the favourites. The projected scoreline is 3–1, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–0 (10.7%). We expect goals and an open game.

The result only pays 1.28, so the goals markets are an option too: Both teams to score (odds 1.80), with a probability of 53% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 53% and over 2.5 goals is 67%.

Main points of the prediction

  1. Meetings: 23; Benfica 19 wins, 2 draws, GIL Vicente 2 wins.
  2. Average goals in their meetings: 3.2 per match.
  3. Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 67%.
  4. Not available: Benfica 0, GIL Vicente 0.

Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes

Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 53%, odds up to 1.80). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.

Absences

Not available for Benfica: no absences. Not available for GIL Vicente: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.

Benfica vs GIL Vicente: the numbers side by side

BenficaGIL Vicente
100%Head to head0%
79%Goals21%
79.0%Overall21.0%

Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.

Benfica vs GIL Vicente: head to head

All matches
19Benfica
2Draws
2GIL Vicente
13/9/26 · Benfica 3–1 GIL Vicente
2/3/26 · GIL Vicente 1–2 Benfica
26/9/25 · Benfica 2–1 GIL Vicente
28/3/25 · GIL Vicente 0–3 Benfica
28/9/24 · Benfica 5–1 GIL Vicente
4/2/24 · Benfica 3–0 GIL Vicente

Returns calculator

Potential return0 €
Net profit0 €
Implied probability0%
Market margin8.2%

Benfica vs GIL Vicente: common questions

Which bet do we recommend for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?

On the result, our pick is Benfica to win (1.28); on goals, Both teams to score (1.80). Prefer less risk? Go for Benfica or draw (1X).

Who will win Benfica vs GIL Vicente?

As we see it: Benfica to win 74%, the draw 16%, GIL Vicente to win 10%.

What is the kick-off time and venue?

29 October 2026, 20:45, at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisbon. Referee: J. Bessa.

Who will be missing?

Benfica: no absences. GIL Vicente: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.

Will the game go over 2.5 goals?

We give over 2.5 goals a 67% chance (odds 1.42), against 33% for under 2.5 (odds 3.01).

Will both teams score?

By our numbers, both sides scoring is 53% (odds 1.80).

What correct score is most probable?

In order: 2–0 (10.7%), 3–0 (9.3%), 2–1 (9.1%).

Where do your predictions come from?

It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.

18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.