KNVB Cup
Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
MVV v Excelsior takes place on 28 October 2026 · 19:00 at De Geusselt (Maastricht); A. Bos will referee. We back Excelsior (67%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
MVV vs Excelsior: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 7.00 | 4.87 | 1.42 |
| Market average | 6.77 | 4.72 | 1.40 |
| Lowest odds | 6.41 | 4.50 | 1.36 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.11 | 83.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 2.55 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.16 | 43.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.65 | 56.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.13 | 43.7% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 28/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 7.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: MVV 1–2 Excelsior, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Absences: MVV 0, Excelsior 0.
Who will win MVV vs Excelsior?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
MVV vs Excelsior: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Most likely correct scores
MVV vs Excelsior: injuries, suspensions, absences
MVV
- No reported absences
Excelsior
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
MVV vs Excelsior: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
What to expect
We make Excelsior the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–2 (9.8%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), with a probability of 64% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 56% and over 2.5 goals is 64%.
Main points of the prediction
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 64%.
- Not available: MVV 0, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Other option: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, odds up to 1.73). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for MVV: no absences. Not available for Excelsior: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
MVV vs Excelsior: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Returns calculator
MVV vs Excelsior: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for MVV vs Excelsior?
On the result, our pick is Excelsior to win (1.42); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.50). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Excelsior (X2).
Who will win MVV vs Excelsior?
As we see it: MVV to win 14%, the draw 20%, Excelsior to win 67%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
28 October 2026, 19:00, at De Geusselt, Maastricht. Referee: A. Bos.
Who will be missing?
MVV: no absences. Excelsior: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 64% chance (odds 1.50), against 36% for under 2.5 (odds 2.70).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 56% (odds 1.67).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–2 (9.8%), 0–2 (9.8%), 1–1 (8.5%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.