EFL Cup
Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bournemouth entertain Aston Villa on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), with T. Harrington the man in the middle. We do not see a favourite here. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.37 | 3.70 | 2.93 |
| Market average | 2.33 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.15 | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.59 | 1.57 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.37 | 39.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.34 | 39.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.56 | 2.53 | 36.6% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 28/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Form in the competition: Bournemouth 1W 0D 0L (4:0), Aston Villa 1W 0D 0L (3:1).
- Absences: Bournemouth 0, Aston Villa 0.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: injuries, suspensions, absences
Bournemouth
- No reported absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Bournemouth 4.0 scored and 0.0 conceded, Aston Villa 3.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bournemouth: 1W 0D 0L, goals 4–0; Aston Villa: 1W 0D 0L, goals 3–1.
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (10.8%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.50), with a probability of 63% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 63% and over 2.5 goals is 60%.
Main points of the prediction
- This competition, scored–conceded: Bournemouth 4–0, Aston Villa 3–1.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 60%.
- Not available: Bournemouth 0, Aston Villa 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 63%, odds up to 1.50). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Bournemouth: no absences. Not available for Aston Villa: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
BournemouthWAston VillaWReturns calculator
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
On the result, our pick is Bournemouth or draw (1X) (1.43); on goals, Both teams to score (1.50). Prefer less risk? Go for Bournemouth or draw (1X).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
As we see it: Bournemouth to win 41%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa to win 33%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
28 October 2026, 19:45, at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: T. Harrington.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: no absences. Aston Villa: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 60% chance (odds 1.59), against 40% for under 2.5 (odds 2.45).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (7.8%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.